TPPs market top checklist

Version 4. See tag for prior versions (7/16, 7/23, 7/31) answered all No. 

If this is a top of significance it is a very sloppy one. I think more like a pause after fantastic run, SPX up 10% in 6-7 weeks, NDX testing all time highs, sentiment extremes reached, and summer range rather than continuing breakout up. 

1. Multiple major USA indexes at major resistance, then rejections? VIX / XIV alert?

Partially. The very pesky thing is INDU within 100 points (59 then 96) of YR1 and SPX within 5 points of Q3R2, but we cannot count these. RTY did tag 2HR1 near exact, and VTI tagged YR1. VIX also showing mild concern with 2 closes above AugP, but not with the look of support yet and a small drop would be back under levels. 

Possibly, but without SPX, INDU and NDX tagging big levels and VIX only giving partial hedge signal, looks more like a shakeout than a top - so far. 

2. RSI extreme reached? Negative divergence? Bollinger bands in play, or divergence? (ie "other technicals"?)

On the daily charts, DIA reached RSI 68.9 on 7/20 and faded from there. QQQ reached 69.97 on 7/27 and kept on powering up. SPY and IWM reached higher zones but not what you'd typically call overbought (69+) yet. 
INDU quarterly chart does have issues though, and now about 5 weeks from the close of the bar. This is something to watch, because a September fade back under highs would look more like a bull trap. 
Lastly, SPX, NDX, INDU either tag or quite near monthly BBs. 

My read: Top possible but pause equally or more likely.

3. High tested with at least 1 lower high?

Yes, 8/15 high then 8/23 test. SPY double top, DIA lower high 8/23, QQQ fractionally higher 8/23, IWM higher 8/23, VTI fractionally higher. 

4. Safe havens showing concern? 

TLT and GLD *weaker* below AugPs. VIX / XIV / VI very mild concern, very easily alleviated with any move lower on Monday.  

5. Breadth or volume divergence (adv / dec volume is my favorite)

A dip into negative territory 8/25-26 after a clear lower high in August compared to July. The last stretch was 8/1-3. Mildly, but but not too bad yet. Other breadth measures are mixed. Simple readings like ADD look like this volume chart, a lower high in August. Cumulative breadth made higher highs on 8/23 however. 

6. Sentiment extremes reached?

Yes, definitely. I wrote about this here on 8/19If market is going higher it needs to shake out some of the weaker hands. Classic. 

7. Valuation / fundamentals? 
Many would argue this is most important, but I believe information will show in charts first. Citigroup Economic Surprise index did a great job confirming the stock breakout, and now you could say it is confirming a pause in price by rapidly fading back towards the zero line (yet so far remaining above). 

Valuations on the higher side, but in later stages of 2009 bull market maybe we will see SPX forward P/E 18 - 20 especially if political concerns ease in the fall. 

8. Timing window?

I don't get them all and some turn out to be non-events, but several major turns this year have been in timing windows identified in advance. 

2/11-15 stock low / bond high
6/8 stock high
6/28 (missed by 1 day and magnitude)

In August I tried to separate stocks from TLT and GLD and whether that was success remains to be seen - perhaps just cluttered up the calendar. I did have 8/22 listed for stocks and so far 8/23 high is an acceptable +1.