Friday 8/21 reminded us that stock indexes, bonds and gold can all drop together with the fear of rising interest rates, but in general I think TLT and GLD below their monthly pivots leaves stocks in the stronger position.
In addition, VIX continues to give the all clear sign by holding the AugP as resistance on 3 days this month. I even included the VI1 and VIU futures this week to see if any warnings of immediate reversal. Other than oversold divergence on daily charts (XIV, VIU) there is not much to worry about. Of course VIX will increase at some point, and there is probably more upside than downside with VIX in 11s. But that hasn't happened yet.
Keep in mind the ideal stock sell signal will combine major level rejections with some sort of VIX confirmation. We haven't seen that yet.
Weekly view far away from YR1 support and 2HR1 resistance. If you add Bollinger bands on quarterly, monthly, weekly (not shown) then there looks to be less chance of seeing that 2HR1 as prices would again have to move outside at least one of those bands to hit that level.
Daily chart has been below the AugP all month, with lows basically on AusS1. I think a jump above AugP would likely coincide with a pullback in stocks. For now the short recommended on 7/6 and triggered on 7/8 is holding below the current monthly pivot.
Weekly chart similarly between levels. 2 small blue bars with wicks vulnerable to a drop.
Daily chart tried to lift above the AugP on 8/18 but could not maintain.
Unlikely to see long term support, as I just don't think we will see VIX in 8s let alone 9s. VIX AugP support 3 trading days has said keep buying dips and hold longs. If market were going to have a more serious pullback we should have seen a close above the AugP.
Healthy. Daily chart looking good above the AugR1 again, although showing divergence on RSI.
VIX futures continuous contract showing a very different story with a big jump last week. Daily chart shows the jump up on 8/17, which has happened a few other times this year on monthly rollovers. So, more bullish with VI1 below 14.60.
Weekly chart doing fine; daily lows just 8/20 and maybe we will see the Q3S2 at 14.21 tag. The only warning we see is RSI divergence on the daily chart.