Last week: "Stocks set up for higher. It would be nice to see the ideal target zones mentioned just below, although whether or not this is this week or later I do not know. Simply stated bullish until we see INDU YR1 as I really think we will see that trade."
Result was higher highs in all 5 USA main indexes last week, although INDU hasn't tagged its YR1 yet.
USA mains are acting in a very healthy fashion at the highs and we should see major pivot resistance for a top of any significance. Most sentiment extremes reached in mid July have backed off. Safe havens TLT and GLD are a bit weaker, and we aren't seeing any concern from VIX/XIV. Simply stated stocks should rally further and I'd especially like to see INDU YR1 area (also check other index targets below) for a key high.
USA mains - All 5 USA main indexes are not yet at pivot resistance and/or have cleared levels which have turned into support. As long as those levels hold, we should see higher for a top of major significance. Ideal top zone mentioned last week and still in play is: SPX Q3R2 / 2HR1 combo, INDU YR1, NDX anything above 4816, RUT Q3R2 / 2HR1 / YR1 cluster.
Safe havens - TLT and GLD below AugPs, but not much damage. VIX not sending any warning for stocks yet, though XIV AugR1 level to watch
Global & other - Oil the weak link back above 2HP last week, and again testing YP as of Friday. This would be a fast move from below all pivots (slightly) as of 8/10 and possibly reclaiming all with one more up day. China and Emerging markets moving well. DAX testing YP from below, interesting level to watch.
NDX is just ignoring daily overbought readings which to me says it will get the headline of new all time highs. Yet just as interesting TLT just has not dropped that much and double bottom and hold of daily 50MA (moving average) means this could easily go back and test highs or higher. In this "everything up" market, USA main indexes, bonds and gold are all pushing upper Bollinger bands on some timeframe or another (quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily).
Put-call made a significant low near 7/20, but then rose. NAAIM managers reached an extreme on 7/13 and since then only Tech has substantially advanced with SPY, DIA, IWM and NYA all mostly flat). ISEE has had some individual readings on the higher and and is worth watching. Ideally we will see another round of sentiment extremes (not just the NAAIM managers) that coincides with USA main indexes reaching pivot resistance.
Valuation and fundamentals
Thomson reporting 17.00 forward earnings but in the last few weeks SPX has continued up while P/E has dropped from 17.20; for now a bullish trend. Also, while Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has faded some, it is above the zero line.
I listed 7/29-8/6 as an important period since the end of June. This turned into a key pullback low for stocks, a double top in gold and less important lower high in TLT. August timing was a bit mixed as I tried to separate out stocks from safe havens.
I thought the 7/29-8/6 window was a strong one, and as it turned into a pesky stock 7/29-8/1 high quickly followed by 8/2 key pullback low. Maybe the importance of this 8/2 area will be in the safe havens key lower high in TLT and double top in GLD. We'll see.
Remaining dates for August:
8/9-10 stocks - at this point, hard to say; pullback low or 8/11 high +1
8/12-13 bonds & gold - 8/13 was Saturday so this is really 8/12; 8/11 pullback low?
8/23-24 bonds & gold
8/29-9/1 all mkts