Bonds update

As yields were making historic lows I wrote a few special posts on bonds - check the tag. 

7/2 thought yields should go lower / TLT higher, though stretched

7/6 recommended speculative short on TLT at a level that came within .02 of the high 2 days later

7/9 thought window for turn more likely, targets reached

Next week was the biggest drop in a year; only to come roaring back. Now what?

As of early July, I thought move had more to go. A week later thought we could have a turn, and that was right. Now the bounce in yields / drop in TLT has been disappointing, and now it seems more likely that TLT tests highs or higher. This will be especially the case if TLT reclaims all pivots above AugP 140.72. 

To put the move in context let's again looking at long term charts of TYX.

The red line is the 2015 low and I had to make it thinner so you could see the current bar. Now we are only about halfway through Q3 but really this bounce has been very weak thu sfar. Look at others that get going from the lower band. Comparatively, this is just not going anywhere. If TYX drops under the 2015 low again of 2.22, watch out below. 

Monthly chart with same idea. Despite RSI near extreme, very weak at the current level. 

Stayed under a sharply falling 10MA (aqua line). RSI only reached 40 on the bounce. Even a bounce failing near 50 is more common and still a downtrend. Quite weak! Maybe we will see the lower band again.

Daily chart clear drop from the 50MA, and already back under all MAs (10, 20, 50, etc). Not hard to imagine a visit to lower band at least. 

And a TLT chart with pivots and MAs. If above the AugP I would expect a move to Q3R1 again and maybe up to long term resistance levels above that near 146-148.