Last week: "Due to RSI extremes on the safe havens, I would rather see a bit of a fade there as stocks rally further. If you were savvy, you were reducing stock longs on Friday 6/24, then buying back small portions on 6/27 and larger 6/28. ... RUT / IWM still below the YP. So that is the big level to watch next week, along with XIV Q3P."
So correct on stocks rally but not on safe haven fade. XIV Q3P was a key level to watch because if you did then you added more longs on the 7/7 close or worst case 7/8 open.
Sum
Generous market continues rewarding USA stock buyers, and USA bond and gold buyers too. Europe and Japan are the places you don't want to be. USA indexes roughly sideways for 18 months with a great looking Citigroup Economic Surprise index chart, major pivot holds after a big scare and VIX spike, bullish sentiment nowhere near a top. Ingredients are all there for a classic summer stock rally (already in process really) but what I mean is a blast through to decent new SPX and INDU all time highs.
I'd just feel better about the stock move if TLT stopped going up. I should drop this idea perhaps with the strong arm central banks making USA 10 year the obvious choice above 136 bps above German and Japanese debt, but still the basic conflict between growth (stocks) and contraction (bonds) is hard to shake as happening simultaneously.
Pivots
USA mains
Very bullish action from the 6/27-28 key turn and then the 7/6 hold. The market should reach major resistance before an important turn, so this means Q3R1s then YR1s. Near term most important level is RUT / IWM YP.
Safe havens
TLT and GLD also continue melt up although both bang on Q3R1s which could be some trading turn. VIX nailed the stock low but less likely to get the stock high; watching XIV.
Global
ACWI, EEM, PIN under YP; EFA, NKY and DAX still under all pivots. Europe and Japan the trouble area so USA mains better chance of rally if at least they stop going down. CL1 also sitting on YP, more bullish to hold.
Other technicals
See today's post on bonds. Might be worth watching the upper weekly BBs (Bollinger bands) on USA mains, since falling slope lines more likely to act as resistance.
Valuation and fundamentals
Fundamentals improving very bullish for the market and should help blast through the highs.
Sentiment
Just coming off put-call spike and ISEE lower values, so we should see bullish extremes before a major top.
Timing
Dates for June listed at end of May:
"So basically 6/7-9, 6/13-14, then 6/28 mild."
6/8 was the stock high and significant turn
6/13-14 was a miss in stocks, and 2 days from trading turn in safe havens TLT and GLD
6/28 was 1 day after major low, stronger than I realized
2 of 3 dates published in advance very near key turns!
Dates for July posted end of June
7/13-15
7/29-8/5 strong
But I'm not sure how these will play out - it takes a lot more time (that I don't have right now) to get direction in advance. More bullish for stocks would be both stock highs and and turn in bonds and gold especially coming up 7/13-15. Or stocks could make a trading high on 7/13-15 as bonds continue melt up. Bias is for the former but we'll see.