Safe havens

Safe havens TLT and GLD have worked off RSI extremes (especially in the case of TLT) but so far still above all pivots. Safe haven strength would probably coincide from a rejection of SPY YR1 or if stocks higher INDU set YR1.

The ideal move would be for safe havens to drop down to test pivots, as stocks go higher and INDU gets to reach its YR1. But this may or may not happen. 

VIX worked incredibly well on the major stock lows of the year. Check the chart below for yourself - the key turns have been as the YP holds as resistance and then VIX drops from the level with a big move. As long as VIX is under pivots, stock trend is up. We are very unlikely to see VIX major support at a stock top, because it is just too low. Medium term support more possible in August with new pivots. This will be something to watch along with any USA main index resistance levels. Similarly, XIV YP could come into play soon. 

Weekly stopped shy of reaching 2HR1. Lots of support underneath at the 2HP / YR1 combo 133-134. Daily chart shows the high (where we issued a very rare speculative short) on Q3R1, but the recent low didn't even test the JulP yet. So medium term support 135-36. Until we see TLT below pivots, trend is still up. Even then, it will probably take 2 or perhaps 3 pivot breaks, and/or a major long term level acting as resistance before a real "short and hold" style downtrend. Even if you took this trade, if it distracted from getting max long 7/6 area on USA indexes then it was a waste of time. 

Weekly chart also stopped shy of reaching long term resistance; note RSI overbought or near enough 3/7, 4/25 and 7/4. Like TLT, GLD made a trading high on the Q3R1 / JulR1 combo, and hasn't tested any pivot this month. 

I'll be saying this every week... this VIX weekly chart is a thing of beauty because that YP which held on a closing basis the entire year helped confirm the key stock buys of 2016. That said, it is very unlikely we'll see long term support for the stock top! We probably won't even see medium term support, but in August the pivot will be lower and perhaps support level will be in reach. 

It bothers me that this is so different from VIX, but I don't fully understand the calculations. No matter, I know that signals here are worth heeding too. XIV has launched from its 2HP but still under its YP, which could be an interesting area to watch along with INDU YR1. Daily view adds even more resistance there with Q3R1.