2 main safe havens, TLT and GLD, are *soaring.* It is difficult to imagine a strong stock rally as long as this is the case. Yet it is quite impressive how USA indexes have held up. Maybe it is just a global thing - no one wants to be in Europe, Japan, China, where to go? So into both USA stocks and bonds is the big money move.
VIX gave the perfect stock buy / short cover signal between Monday 6/27 and Tuesday 6/28. It has been great on the lows this year. But due to structure of last year's spike, it is unlikely we will see VIX support levels on stock turns, so pay extra attention to XIV for spotting stock market tops. We are heading into the Q3P on XIV, so this will help confirm a stock rally (especially if IWM is also clearing its YP) or fade (ditto, especially if IWM is falling from its YP).
Wow. Huge jump above YR1 and since clearly holding 1HR1 as support in late April TLT has been on a tear. Unfortunately the new 2HPs are not showing on the weekly charts yet. We'll see them as the new bar opens on Tuesday. So this means the red dots that look like heading into resistance are not really in play.
That said, the weekly chart RSI full OB (overbought) worth watching. This is a fairly rare event - just a few weeks of the past 5 years, then a cluster of weeks in 2011, 1 week in 2010, then of course during the market meltdown in autumn 2008.
We *can* see the 2HP levels on the daily chart. TLT well above all pivots, with JulP, then Q3P both 135-136; then the 2HP below that about 133. First major resistance is Q3R1 at 143 and change, then 2HR1 is near 146. Also note daily chart RSI extreme with some divergences.
As with TLT, the new 2HP levels are not showing on the weekly chart yet. Still, huge run up with a lift above YR1, maybe heading to YR2. Daily chart well above all pivots with first resistance at 130, and both Q3P and JulP near 123.
There it is folks! VIX YP holds have been the places to buy stocks this year. Don't wait for YS1 however :) Safe to hold stocks below the Q3P / JulP combo at 18.28 and 18.35 respectively. First support is really too low, down under 10. I doubt we see that, so keep a closer eye on XIV (below) to spot market tops.
This has done well as a confirming indicator. Below long term levels correctly bearish to start the year, near test of YS1, fractionally above YP with clear rejection week of 6/6 confirmed a top. Daily chart above JulP but under Q3P, key level to watch for the week. A rejection there along with IWM YP fail would be bearish.