Last week I thought the markets were quite mixed and contradictory and I didn't have an opinion either way: "This coming week I really don't have a bias. If the bounce was for real then we should see stocks higher, VIX lower and perhaps TLT back under its MayP too on Monday. Most stocks have more to go before reclaiming MayPs however. If bounce was just an option expiration move then TLT bid, VIX up from its MayP and stocks back down. Also, it will be interesting to see if NDX can reclaim its YP because this has been part of the concern for stocks since late April."
So the move back above all the MayPs on the main indexes was a surprise but easy to go with it, especially seeing NDX back above its YP too.
Total view from here
Bullish on USA stocks is the correct view after the Tech set and NYA jumped back above YP / 1HPs. Now I will be watching the RTY / IWM YP and HP. If that clears along with further safe haven weakness, full on bullish USA stocks. However, that may not happen; we could see the rally stop cold on the RTY / IWM YP as the safe havens hold Q2Ps areas. We'll see what happens. And of course, we'll have new JunePs which look to be supportive for USA indexes and somewhat bearish for safe havens.
We'll have new June Ps starting 6/1 and it is likely that USA stock indexes will open above. Also, it is likely that TLT and GLD will open below. The big levels to watch from here are the RTY / IWM YP / 1HP area, and then on the safe haven side we may see tests of Q2Ps for both TLT and GLD.
If time I would do a technical review on quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily charts across all these indexes. Suffice to say stocks are resuming an uptrend and safe havens looking vulnerable. Bottom line: safe havens down should help stock indexes test 2015 highs.
Valuation and fundamentals
While valuation should still mean SPX resistance near 2128, this is an improvement from last week and too close to 2015 highs not to test. Fundamentals on the uptick.
I noted quite bearish sentiment despite a mild pullback. Indexes have responded appropriately. We aren't seeing it shift the other way despite the strength of the rally thus far and drop in safe havens.
One concern to this move is that 5/26-31 area is turning into a high. For June, watch for turns near 6/7-9, 6/13-14, then 6/28 (mild).