Mostly bearish for safe havens. "Bearish safe havens: TLT AprR1 rejection, GLD YR1 rejection, VIX continuing lower and XIV up."
TLT bearish status change, under Q2P for the first time in months. GLD continuing to chop around the YR1. VIX looks fine, but XIV drop from AprR1 like some USA main indexes.
Bullish: TLT recovers Q2P, GLD above YR1, VIX higher, XIV continues to drop from AprR1.
Bearish: TLT breaks 1HR1, GLD more rejection of YR1, VIX lower and XIV back up to AprR1.
TLT back near 1HR1, and under Q2P - the first time under both medium term levels since 1/5/2016. It is likely that TLT weakness will limit the pullback damage in USA indexes and increase the chance we see YP area test in RTY, the one USA index still under long term levels. Conversely, TLT recovering Q2P would point to further declines for USA stocks.
GLD continuing to chop around teh 1HR2 / YR1 combo, without being able to advance further but not dropping either. 10th week of consolidation after the 6 week rally, most of which was done in 2 weeks!
VIX W for context, as we won't be seeing any long term support on the low, at least not this half. VIX D was not on any pivot. Market not worried until VIX is above at least that monthly pivot.
I am not sure why VIX is so low yet XIV remains under long term pivots. XIV D pullback from AprR1 like some USA indexes.