Despite a 60% rally off the lows on the CL1 contract in about 6 weeks, CL1 did not even tag its long term levels 1HP and YP. It spent 2 trading days above the Q1P and then failed. In other words, from The Pivotal Perspective this rally was weaker than 2015 Q2 advance because that spent the entire quarter above its Q2P.
Oil looks subject to near term pressure, but may open Q2 in mixed condition below long term levels yet above Q2P and AprP. This is just not the best setup for a major new position, but oil obviously impacting the related RSX and EWZ, and likely still correlating to USA stocks as well. No strong opinion here other than to say long term downtrend remains intact. If oil opens above the next medium term levels we'll see how those react. The last two oil posts here and here were indicating pause likely.
CL1 W chart toppy candle last week under long term levels with RSI in downtrend sell zone.
CL1 D chart with 2 days above the Q1P and then fail. These levels only valid through 3/31 however, and it is likely that oil will open above Q2P and AprP. For now the move is more like rejection though.
The current K contract looks more bearish since it did not even come close to recapturing Q1P. Depending on the next few days we could be close to its Q2P and/or AprP.
CL1 Q chart for context near the Q1 close. Held the 2008 low and better to be inside the BB, but relatively weak advance despite the percentage up.
Monthly chart withe the same low marked. Better RSI and BB divergence on the low, and Feb close above the low was some tell for the rally. But 10MA is sharply falling and may be resistance, which would mean next move down.