For the series check the sentiment tag. Put-call extreme last week was part of safe-haven strategy this week that worked out well.
Put-call continues to flash a warning sign but all the other readings are quite middling without any edge. I think we should see a bit more enthusiasm for a big top in the market. That said, put call near where it was on the highs was very similar to several major market tops, see the chart and note just below. So, possibility of major high but I don't have too strong an opinion as I'd rather see extremes on at least 2 of 4 reached as we saw near 2/11 lows. If interested in this sort of stuff I also recommend checking The Fat Pitch's review of BAML survey here.
Daily put-call 10MA near area of lows from 2014 second half through 2016. Not many trading days lower and in fact these were near major tops ie 5/20/2015, 6/22/2015, 10/28/2015 - 11/4/2015, 12/29/2015 and now we have a very similar level reached near 3/18/2016.
Weekly put-call has dropped sharply from last week, increasing the chances we are seeing a major turn. Put-call is now lower than early December, but above the late May and June 2015 tops.
ISEE reached 127 on 3/18 which is on the high side but not where I usually consider extreme, ie 140+. Still that was the level on a high. We immediately saw extreme low values 3/22-23 of 54 and 60 respectively. Consider the 52 week low on 9/28/2015 was 35 and there were only 10 trading days in the past year that were below 54. So this is quite a lot of bearish sentiment in a strong market.
10MA still 94% of data from 2005, bearish extreme
20MA also 94% percentile
50MA 96% percentile
Honestly I don't know what to make of this. You can read up on their method here but these values are all extreme LOWS ie no calls and lots of puts, while standard put-call is at relative lows, the opposite.
AAII managers (data from 2006) at 59 just a shade lower than 62 last week. Very middle of the road 52% percentile, not much edge.
AAII individuals (data from 2005)
bulls 67% percentile, up from the extremes near 2/11, but quite far from any bullish extreme ie top 10% reading
bears 12%, OK, this is fairly small # of bears and close to extreme.
bull bear spread 36% percentile
bull 8 week avg still 90% percentile bearish extreme
OK, it is interesting to see low #s of bears this week but give bull bear spread and 8 week avg hard to say people are too enthusiastic.