Search on GLD tag or look through featured posts and you'll see I started sounding quite bullish on gold in late January, and even suggested an add if it traded above its YP (which happened in early Feb). In the last weekly strategy sum, I mentioned to keep an eye on the YR1s. Of course GDX is an extra juicy way to play gold although the correlations don't always line up exactly.
Now, whether this is the start of another epic run like the 2000s into 2011 remains to be seen. If you got in early then easier to give those positions some room. Gains on the adds in early February are what are at stake, if still holding those.
GLD and GDX have held up quite well despite a big stock rally, so if stocks fail at big yearly levels (TBD) then perhaps they will get another run.
I don't have a firm conclusion at this point. GLD exceeded its YR1 and just now dropping below. GDX has had 2 days of high volume selling exactly from its YR1, but so far holding up fairly well. But both remain above all pivots and have nice upward sloping D20 and D50 MAs. If GLD stays above its YR1 then it is a much easier long term hold. Even though GDX has had selling from that level, if GLD stays firm then that should help GDX as well and then I would think to hold above all pivots.
GLD W would be better to hold the YR1 as support, but right now breaking, somewhat bearish especially on weekly close. Of course all could change after 2:00 today, but this is what it looks like now.
Here's the daily chart so that still quite healthy above all pivots; GLD did far better than TLT maintaining gains through the stock rebound. You could make a case for holding above the monthly pivot and if that lasts, then seeing how the Q2 and AprPs look.
And here's the daily chart with all levels. You can see the attempt to jump above the YR1 has faded and now maybe turning into resistance. Keep in mind that virtually all asset classes had major turns on yearly levels already.
Here's a standard daily chart chart with simple moving averages (10, 20, 50, 200) and Bollinger bands. RSI is about in buy area near 50 and there is both lower BB and then eventually the D50 can be support soon. So I am not saying sell here; just watching what happens at the YR1s and then deciding whether best to reduce position or hold.
GDX was structurally weaker so far has stopped right on its YR1 / 1HR1 combo. That said, maintaining most gains so far.
Daily view with all levels. Large high volume selling bar at the YR1 / 1HR1 combo on 3/8 and again on 3/14. That said, still above all pivots. This is why it is often a good tactic to take some profits on a big level, and hold other positions as long as it remains above all pivots and/or above rising MAs lines.
Again on this view GDX just doesn't look too bad yet, only 1 slight close below a D20MA.