Weekly strategy update

If you are following along, the first stock index buys I recommended all year (not safe havens) were on 2/12 on DIA and 2/16 on a few emerging market ETFs that were above FebPs. This was the right idea.

But then there was a shuffle last week as I thought add to bounce plan on on 2/23, cut those as apparent mistake 2/23, then back on 2/24 as safe havens were also out, in and out again. 

So let's say using 20 units as base (1 unit = 5% of portfolio)
3 TLT from 1/6 area, the adds 1/27-28 are what we've been shuffling around
3 GLD from 1/27 area, again the adds 2/4-5 are what have been shuffled
3 DIA from 2/12 looks good to hold, watching the YP
2-5 DIA / SPY adds from last week so far hold
2 FXI shorts slight under water today, to decide
1 BTCUSD long to hold
1 DXY long OR EUR short in today

Now what? If in all positions from the higher side there are 2 units available. Current positioning is 30% safe havens, 10% short; 25-40% long, 10% currency somewhat uncorrelated. This is a bounce playbook and somewhat neutral yet the first DIA buy was from a good area. 

It is harder to add stocks here because there is nothing near a pivot. But TLT is clearly dropping from its MarP, and this is the first time since Dec that we have seen negative action from a level. So we could reduce the TLT down a unit. Or further, and maybe much too cute, but we could shuffle the 15% long position to 10% long and 5% short, ie sell one and reverse as a hedge against the drop, and program a reverse back to long with a daily close above the pivot. 

The main point here is like reducing TLT a bit more than adding stock longs here. Most stock indexes are heading into major resistance (like DIA heading into its YP) and have a lot of distance from both MarPs and MarR1s as well. But TLT looks like rejection and we're very near a level. Probably the short hedge is too cute so let's say TLT reducing a notch to 2 units which is also a way of making the portfolio slightly more bullish without adding any stock longs. 

3:30 EST update
To make portfolio more skewed bullish steps would be:
Reduce TLT by 1 unit as noted above
Cut FXI shorts
Add on QQQ and hold above YP or SOXX and hold above 1HP

QQQ above the YP today, but given 8/24 discrepancies that is a bit suspect. SOXX also worthy of consideration since reclaiming its 1HP today. Even though short term overbought, good R/R for buy and hold above the 1HP. Then we see what happens at the YP / Q1P combo.