Emerging markets

I first mentioned the emerging market ETFs of FXI, EEM, PIN, RSX and EWZ on 11/9/2015 as hedge choices against USA longs that were breaking under Q4R1 resistance. OK, these had been down a lot already so not a completely radical idea, but using pivots it was an easy spot as the collection were weaker and below more pivots compared to the USA indexes which at the time, were significantly stronger.  

As of 11/9/2015
SPY, QQQ and DIA above all pivots; IWM above 3 but below 2HP; NYA above medium term Q4P and NovP but still below YP and 2HP.

FXI below YP, 2HP, just above Q4P and NovP; as of 11/23/2015 was below all pivots and has maintained that category since! From 11/23 to the low on 2/11, FXI dropped 26% and is still down about -20% today. 

EEM below YP, 2HP and NovP; as of 11/27/2015 below all pivots, and maintained that status until 2/1. 2/3 lifted above the FebP again, then 2/16 was the 3rd time above the level. 11/27 close to low -18% and as of 2/16 close still nearly -12% down.

PIN as of 11/9 already below all pivots. It briefly recovered the DecP the last few days of the year, and didn't break under until 1/6. 1/6 gave a host of choices but measuring from there matching other indexes with at -12% drop and currently down about -9%, still below all pivots.

RSX as of 11/9 below YP and 2HP, above Q4P and NovP. Returned to below all pivots on 12/7 and stayed that way until 2/3; the last 2 days the 2nd time above the monthly level. 12/7H to low -25% and until 2/16 close still nearly -13% down. 

EWZ was a fantastic short for much of 2015. As of 11/9 it was still holding on to NovP; after a few bounces returned to status below all pivots on 12/10. From there to low was -25% down, and as of 2/3 it reclaimed the FebP for the second time for a drop of about -14%. 

If you were looking for a YS1 to cover, this nearly reached on FXI at the low, PIN near lows, RSX near exact lows, but you only got to 2HS1 on EEM and no long term level on EWZ, only Q1S2. 

Now what? As I type situation different with only DIA poking above Feb today, while EEM cleared yesterday fractionally, and RSX and EWZ have been above for 2-3 days as well. I suggested EEM as a speculative buy yesterday at the close, and also mentioned RSX and EWZ as long ideas in the weekly strategy sum here.  

While all stock indexes have a lot more to go to regains quarterly levels, for now the recovery of Feb pivots is definitely a bullish step, and it will be interesting to watch these going forward.

Main point: if you used these for great shorts last year, you had chance for fantastic gains. But now as long as we are seeing emerging markets beat USA indexes to clear Feb pivots, we can think the other way. Of course, this only applies to those above pivots, and anything that stays below all pivots while others recover remains a first choice short candidate.