I don't know. As explained here, It isn't my bias but so far multiple long term support levels have tested and held for several USA main indexes, or broken and recovered. Conversely, safe havens TLT and GLD reached long term resistance and have faded back down. So I have to consider the possibility of a major turn.
Basically, is 2016 another first quarter major stock index low like 2014 (SPX lows 2/3 & 2/5) then up for most of the year - or 2015 (SPX lows 1/14, 1/15, 1/30, 2/2 then up for several months? Or is this just a bounce in larger downtrend for stocks, and pause in bigger rally for the safe havens?
Here are some levels to watch:
1. SPX cash YS1 at 1896. NDX came back to recover its YS1 4007 last last week, and INDU held 15746 after a 1 day break last week, and RTY low bang on YS2 952 that held. So SPX needs to join in. Keep in mind SPY and ES futs already above their YS1 levels at 186.25 and 1866 respectively, but I think SPX cash will confirm the rest or prevent from going higher. Then we can also add NYA YS1 9350 to our watchlist; if this doesn't clear then breadth has not really improved.
2. Oil. A lot correlated on oil these days, and CLH6 WP testing as I type at 28.95. Above that means more bounce possible, below means another test of the YS1 at 27.89 on H contract.
3. Various other short term levels and RSIs on hourly charts. For example, SPY WR1 at 189.61 and the SPY WP at 185.35. Above WPs keep bounce hope alive; weak tags of WR1s and sharp drops would be the first sign of trouble, and or a fade back to WPs and breakdown from there.
4. VIX. Despite the ugliness of the year, VIX has managed to stay below its YP / 1HP pivots both at 27.46 on a daily closing basis for all but 1 day. If VIX rises above 27.46 then this will probably confirm a breakdown in indexes. Conversely, VIX below the FebP at 23.84 would help point to or confirm a stock rally.