Valuation and fundamentals

According to Thompson Reuters, the SPX forward P/E ticked up to 17.30 while price dropped, a bearish development. But the 10MA of the implied earnings estimates given the SPX price level continues to increase, from 127+ to above 130 in the last 3 weeks. 

The last several weeks I have been mentioning 18x-20x forward earnings. I don't think this is too optimistic for the euphoria stage of a bull market, but I will pay attention to any consistent reaction from a round number level or and perhaps 17.5x.

Currently, 10MA of 17x forward earnings is 2221, up a bit from last week. 17.5x is 2286, and 18x is 2351. The 18x-20x target range is now a bit further away at +5% to +16.7% from current price levels. Of course, if earnings continue to increase then SPX could stay at 17.5x and gain in value over time. 


Citigroup Economic Surprise Index about sideways from last week. Still in positive territory. 

My interpretation of these is mild positive for markets. For now the 2220 area is an added possible valuation support level.