Safe havens

Last week: "For positioning, while VIX is above 2HP that means caution until we see back down OR a move up to YP, but not above, 27.46. XIV holding YP would be better for bulls, but needs to recover Q4P."

While I guessed the wrong way, VIX started down on 11/7 and finished under the 2HP, stayed under the 2HP on 11/8, then had a massive collapse on 11/9 confirming the bullish move in stocks by closing under all pivots. 

All charts
Weekly with long term levels only
Daily with long term  medium term
Daily with pivots only (no support or resistance) and moving averages for entries

I have had little positive to say about this all Q4. The choice to short or not is up to you, but if you are not short, then at least use this information to adjust your bond portfolio and overweight financials. Weekly Collapse under YP without any attempt at bounce! Daily RSI very oversold and sitting on Q4S3, but anything below YP is weak. The bearish start to Q4 was clear on both pivots and MAs, but the real tell of breakdown was the 2HP gave up, indicating long term weakness, and conveniently the D200 said the same thing. 

20161112 30 TLT W.png

Breaking 2HP and YR1, and like TLT already at Q4S3. Daily chart with MAs shows break of D200, so effectively gold has "caught up" technically to TLT (ie, both under 2HP and both under D200 - yet TLT weaker below YP and GLD above).

If you were thinking long again anytime after the 2HP hold, you had major warning before election (back under NovP and under 10, 20, 50, 100 & 200 MAs.

A clear push down from long term pivot resistance confirms buying in stocks. 11/8 especially clear, collapsing all the way under all pivots! 

Did fantastic on the low, not breaking major support as almost everything else did.