Last week: "[TLT & GLD] Both back above rising D200 suggest bounce, but both also heading into sharply falling 20MA. If we are due for a long term trend change in bonds as I expect, it would be historically normal to see some chop around long term levels ie 2HP before another definitive move lower. Even if bounce plays out, both of these remain under Q4P and OctP so I think better longs are elsewhere."
Result: TLT continued lower below 2HP but GLD had limited bounce as it held the 2HP. So really the question of whether to hold shorts was answered by the 2HP (TLT hold, GLD partial cover).
TLT leading down, with fast drop from Q4P to 2HP, weak bounce, then lower. Remember, this site recommended a short within .02 of the high on TLT (one and only counter-trend short trade recommended this year) and then pointed out weakness end of Q3 and bearish start to Q4. Shorting is not everyone's game, but at least an underweight to bonds has benefited portfolios in Q4 thus far.
GLD / GDX also started below Q4P and got whacked, both holding 2HP so far, but still rather limited bounce.
VIX and variations (XIV inverse ETF, and futures) of particular interest to me as these *usually* work quite well as confirming indicators on buys and trouble alerts. VIX actually slow to get in gear on drop, but confirmed trouble on 10/27 above its Q4P. Like most USA mains this is the 2nd time above the pivot this quarter. As far as I am concerned, VIX showing trouble means reduce long exposure by getting out of longs or hedging.
Weekly with long term pivots
Daily with long & medium term pivots
Daily with pivots only (no support / resistance) and MAs for clarity of trend
Daily with the works
Weekly chart not much bounce attempt on 2HP at all and already resistance.
Daily chart nearing OctS2 and RSI OS again, but next major support quite a ways lower. D200MA also a tell with 2 weak bounces that quickly failed (10/10-14, 3 days that tried to hold then wham; then 10/21 only 1 day above then wham).
Holding 2HP so far exact on the low, but bounce looks like struggle so far. However, managed to fight through falling 20MA and back above rising D200 so obviously doing better than TLT.
Also holding 2HP on the low, but more problems with D20MA and D200 starting to look like resistance.
Weekly chart echoes stock prices; not yet a threat to long term trends.
Daily chart 2nd move above Q4P / OctP combo. VIX above pivot *is* a threat - see January and early February 2016. I can go on about this.
VIX with other tech indicators shows D200 and 400 acting as some resistance, but note 10/28 lift above 3 MAs and 2 pivots is definitely enough to signal threat.
Weekly did not reach long term levels, but a near tag of OctR1. Still above all pivots.