12/30/2015

SPY just could not clear the DecP which was near exact resistance yesterday.

At 206, SPY 2016 pivots are YP: 200, 1HP 200, Q1P 202 and JanP 205.50 so obviously the JanP is the issue.

QQQ will likely open above all pivots. 

DIA like SPY will be a close call on the JanP but above the others.

IWM remains the problem - at 114 it will open below all pivots although very close to both Q1P and JanP. YP 116.75, 1HP 116, Q1P 114.75 and JanP 114.75.

Lastly, NYA (which I also like to check as an institutional index) at 10241 will be under the YP at 10335, barely under 1HP 10260, also just under Q1P 10254 but above JanP at 10215.

Levels are approximate and rounded as they will all finalize in one more trading day. Still, there will be some easy bull / bear lines to watch in the new year. 

12/29/2015

SPY back above 2HP but could not quite clear the DecP. More important, however, is a close near 207 puts SPY solidly above *all* 2016 pivots: Y, 1H, Q1 and Jan. 

TLT had a big drop today, and though the JanP is within reach that is currently on track to open below all 2016 pivots as well. This helps confirm a bullish setup for stocks. 

12/28/2015

No change to SPY pivot status. After spending all of October and November above the monthly pivot, SPY in December has been mostly below excepting 12/4, 12/7 and 12/16. If the January pivot can act as support we should see some kind of R1 at minimum. 

2016 preview: 

Current SPX 2016 pivots with close at 2056: Y 2019, 1H 2019, Q1 2022, Jan 2051. So this is solidly above all the pivots and barely above January. 

Current SPY 2016 pivots with close at 205: Y 200, 1H 200, Q1 201, above all these by decent margin; then Jan 205 so basically TBD. 

 

12/24/2015

Not much new. As the year has drawn to a close the 2HP seems to be less important than at other times of the year (see the huge breakdown in August).  Looking ahead to 2016 pivots!

For those reading, happy holidays!
 


12/23/2015

Some presents after all. SPY reclaimed 2HP, but the more important issue is starting above the soon to be final 2016 pivots - yearly, first half, first quarter and maybe January too. 

My one and only oil low call is rocking. See the last blog post. 

12/22/2015

Bit more bounce. SPY back above Dec S1, so the recent lows on 12/14 & 12/18 didn't really show up on the SPY pivots. Check QQQ, DIA and IWM though, as all had pivots on or near the turns. 

Yesterday's recommendation of SOXX (only USA stock index ETF that I track still above the DecP) didn't do much today. This makes me a bit skeptical of the bounce so far; when the leader doesn't lead there is not much to it. We'll see what happens the rest of the week. 

That said, the last blog post asking if the oil low was in is still doing well as CL1 continuous contract held the YS1 near exact. Needs follow through but hey, for the first stab at an oil low call on this site that is pretty much nailing it! 

12/21/2015

SPY off the lows, but no change to pivot status on this index. At SPY 201 / SPX 2020, both will be just above the major 2016 pivots (yearly, first half and Q1). More on this soon in a blog post.

SOXX is the only USA stock ETF that I track above the DecP; maybe an interesting overweight for any Santa rally, if we get one! 

12/18/2015

Bearish follow through on 12/18. If following pivots, you were reducing any adds made on 12/16 on 12/17 - very early if able to actively manage below the the DecP, or if system is based on close, then at least then. By 12/18 you would have been significantly less long as SPY and several other major indexes (DIA, QQQ) went from above all pivots (as of 12/16 close) to losing that status at various times on 12/17. 

As far as SPY goes, it is under DecP and 2HP, above the Q4P and YP. DecS1 broke for the 2nd time, and next major support is the DecS2 / 2HS1 / YP combo area all 197.40 to 197.88. That said, it is holiday time and maybe some of the trading algos will be turned off. What is more important is where the major indexes open in respect to 2016 pivots. More on this soon in a blog post. 

The other point to make is that looking at the 3 variations combined (SPY ES & SPX) it looks more like a rejection at the Q4R1s (red crosses) that had exceeded on SPY from 11/2-6 and again from 11/20-27+. This rejection is especially clear on ES and SPX. 

12/17/2015

Ugh, bearish action today. I must admit, the two times I have been really off from the start of this pivot site have been this month when several indexes jumped back above all pivots on 12/4 and 12/16 only to give it all back in the next day or two. The December pivot is just not acting like the November pivot (low of month and perfect buy) nor the October pivot (buying the breakout above was a huge score). 

SPY is back to no man's land under the DecP and more important 2HP, while above the YP and Q4P. DIA also gave back its DecP and 2HP; and market leader QQQ did not hold the DecP either, despite being the 2nd time above this month. 

That said, if really following the pivots, you'd also have profitable shorts in oil with USO (below all pivots from 11/4), XLE recently added (below all pivots from 12/4), gold via GLD or GDX (almost all below all pivots from 11/3); then other global index ETFs such as  FXI (below all pivots from 11/23), EEM (below all pivots from 11/27), PIN (below all pivots from 11//4), and perhaps a bit on EWZ although that has been stabilizing recently. 

Will it be gifts or a lump of coal for USA indexes? We'll see! Also with only 9 trading days left in 2015, I'm eager to see how 2016 pivots are shaping up. More on this soon in a blog post. 

12/16/2015

SPY back above all pivots! This is bullish and opens the door to DecR1 at 212.84. It will have to clear Q4R1 again, but it has already traded above twice so maybe the 3rd time is the charm. Falling back under the DecP nixes this idea but risk reward is pretty good for adding longs back here. 

Also, QQQ and DIA joined SPY in reclaiming all pivots so that helps the bull case. 

12/15/2015

Stock index ETFs bounced today along with oil - see yesterday's blog post, the only time I have said anything about an oil low for the duration of this site so far.

SPY managed to reclaim DecS1, but remains in no man's land under DecP and 2HP, but above YP and Q4P. 

Other indexes also 'could have' been stronger but weren't, meaning DIA could have reclaimed 2HP / DecP combo but didn't; and especially market leader QQQ could have reclaimed the DecP (placing it again above all pivots) but didn't. We'll see what happens Wednesday. 

12/14/2015

SPY continues in no man's land under DecP and 2HP, but above the YP and QP. DecS1 is the nearest level to watch at 203.36; also watch ESH6 DecS1 at 2008.75.

12/11/2015

From 12/10: "This is the 3rd day in a row that DecP (small orange dots) has acted as resistance for SPY. This is short term bearish and points to DecS1 (small green dots)."

Ugh, to DecS1 and even lower. While pivots may start to wane in influence with total changeover to new yearly, semi-annual, quarterly and monthly pivots as of 1/4/2016, the next support on SPY other than weekly levels is much lower at DecS2. 

What's more, IWM and NYA both returned to the status of below all pivots, while QQQ gave up the status of being above all pivots. Right now, the only asset ETF I see above all pivots is TLT - somewhat ironic before a rate hike! Still, that's bearish for stock index ETFs.

Of larger concern is whether 2016 opens above or below the yearly pivot. More on this soon in my next blog post. 

12/10/2015

This is the 3rd day in a row that DecP (small orange dots) has acted as resistance for SPY. This is short term bearish and points to DecS1 (small green dots). 

Also, DIA tried and failed at DecP / 2HP combo as well. IWM was rejected at YP but managed to hold on to Q4P at the close. IWM is only pennies from being back under all pivots! NYA is still holding onto the Q4P too, but any further drop on Friday will send both of these two larger indexes back to the  most negative designation of under all pivots. This will leave QQQ to save the market again, if it can. 

12/9/2015

From yesterday: "SPY and ES fell back under DecPs (small orange dots), which is negative since this opens the door to DecS1 s (small green dots) unless the levels can recover. Watch 207.51 and 2062 respectively."

Markets did drop lower and SPY neared the DecS1 area. As there are only 15 trading days left in 2015, pivots *may* be less snappy than usual, but I still think it will pay to watch that DecS1 level (small green dots). 

Also, as of today, there are no major indexes or ETFs that are above all pivots. Conversely, there are many below. This means the easy money this month is on the short side; long only is frustrated so far. Watch my latest video blog post for more. 
 

12/8/2015

SPY and ES fell back under DecPs (small orange dots), which is negative since this opens the door to DecS1 s (small green dots) unless the levels can recover. Watch 207.51 and 2062 respectively. 

12/7/2015

SPY and ES fell back today, but still held their DecPs (small orange dots). It would be better (ie more bullish) for these to continue to hold as support; if not, then down to 2HPs (larger orange dots) or DecS1s (small green dots). 

12/4/2015

Everybody back in the pool! All the pivot damage on the pullback was quickly corrected today.

From 12/3: "QQQ / NQ / NDX has saved the market at every point of weakness since August (yes, really). But even all these broke DecPs today, so  the first sign of strength would be for these to recover. Respectively: 112.99 / 4617 / 4629." And that's the way it played out - QQQ and the other tech indexes were the first to clear their DecPs and the rest followed. 

SPY, QQQ and DIA - all of which had broken at least one, and in some cases two, pivots yesterday - all reclaimed status of above all pivots. This means back to more long, fully long or even leveraged long depending on your point of view. 

12/3/2015

"But now I am raising some caution flags again because there was enough bearish action today."

"This is somewhat like 9/28-30 in reverse (which means potentially bearish, maybe significantly so)."

"The reasons I have for concern are: QQQ exact tag of Q4R1 and clear rejection, DIA Q4R1 exact tag and clear rejection, and NYA (key institutional index) failing to rally above its YP on 12/1 which would have really helped to confirm the bull case (alas). From the way I count, this means 3 of 5 main USA indexes had bearish pivot action today, and that can be enough to start a drop that matters."

"BUT (this means big but), ES and SPX are holding the level with Q4R1s at 2077 and 2079 respectively. If that breaks, then the DecPs at 2062 and 2072 respectively are the dividing line."

All of the above in quotes because they are comments from yesterday's post on 12/2! This is just one of the few days I have raised caution flags since the end of September low. In fact, 10/13-14 resolved bullish, then 11/9 hedge was worth it with the lift bang on schedule on the November pivots, and being prepared to reduce longs on 12/2 with any further weakness today 12/3 was quite correct!

A Pivotal Portfolio would have been locking in gains from the 9/30-10/5 buys today by raising cash or adding hedges in whatever way is appropriate for the account. 

The levels to watch from here on SPY & ES are first the 2HP at 205.83 and 2039 respectively, then the DecP above which is now resistance, and the DecS1 which should be some support if lower Friday. 

ps: QQQ / NQ / NDX has saved the market at every point of weakness since August (yes, really). But even all these broke DecPs today, so  the first sign of strength would be for these to recover. Respectively: 112.99 / 4617 / 4629.

12/2/2015

Ugh. Since the major bullish holds and recoveries of pivots from 9/30-10/5, I have been largely bullish on the market (true, check it out here). There was a some concern on 10/13 but QQQ level held to keep the rally intact. Then on 11/9 I recommended to hold USA winners and reduce long exposure by hedges on weaker global indexes, which worked. The November pivots on SPY, QQQ and IWM all held simultaneously on 11/16 and that was the perfect place to lift the hedges. 

But now I am raising some caution flags again because there was enough bearish action today on 12/2. Instead of doing a separate blog post I'll just outline my concerns with a number of charts and suggest levels to watch from here. 

SPY, after launching from Q4R1 yesterday, turned right around and broke. This is somewhat like 9/28-30 in reverse (which means potentially bearish, maybe significantly so). However, right now it is still above all pivots and bulls get the benefit of the doubt. Watch the DecP (small orange dots) at 207.51 and below that is the 2HP (larger orange dots) at 205.83. I think the 2HP is the key level here because a break would be the 2nd time after the August drop, and this time after a high test of sorts on 12/1-2 to the 11/3-4Hs. 

BUT (this means big but), ES and SPX are holding the level with Q4R1s at 2077 and 2079 respectively. If that breaks, then the DecPs at 2062 and 2072 respectively are the dividing line. Like the Q4R1s, these look to be a bit lower than the SPY version. 

The reasons I have for concern are: QQQ exact tag of Q4R1 and clear rejection, DIA Q4R1 exact tag and clear rejection, and NYA (key institutional index) failing to rally above its YP on 12/1 which would have really helped to confirm the bull case (alas). From the way I count, this means 3 of 5 main USA indexes had bearish pivot action today, and that can be enough to start a drop that matters. This will be much worse if the king benchmark SPX also confirms, so watch the support area outlined above very carefully from here. 

Supplemental indicators are leaning bearish but overall really still a mixed bag. TLT held its YP weeks ago, and even slightly reclaimed its Q4P today.  I consider this bearish for stocks. XIV not helping by rejecting its Q4P, but still holding DecP which is worth watching from here. However, VIX is still under all pivots so the sell-off isn't really confirmed yet. I recommend  watching all these levels on Thursday, along with the ES and SPX levels mentioned above. 

At this point, due to structure, if everything looked bearish then I'd reduce USA winners AND add shorts again via FXI, EEM, PIN, and possibly RSX, some EWZ too if it stays under all pivots. This is contrast to the 11/9 idea which was holding all USA longs, and simply adding some hedges. Of course there are other ways; through VIX, puts, futures, 3x inverse ETFs, etc, all depending on what you are managing. 

That said if ES and SPX hold their support, and SPY reclaims the Q4R1 then hedge or short idea is off and rally continues.  Also, it is worth nothing that QQQ (ie NQ / NDX) has saved the market at every point this year, including the August low, end September low, 10/13-14 drop and also on the 11/13-14 pullback. So if QQQ holds its DecP, other indexes can come back too.