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Launch! Finally Q4R1s (red crosses) turned into support for all 3 variants on the benchmark index, SPY, ES and SPX. SPY was the only one of the three to look more negative yesterday. Today the level was clear support, and as long as that continues to hold the target zone is the DecR1 / 2HR1 combo at 212.84 / 213.80 for SPY and 2127 / 2126 for ES (Dec contract, which roll over to new #s soon).
I've been pointing out the chance of Q4R1 turning into support from 11/19 on ES and 11/20 on SPY.
SPY wee bit of trouble dropping again below Q4R1 (red crosses); this is really the 4th time we've seen selling from this level. But ES continues to look fine by holding the level. SPX is similarly above (chart not shown). The December pivots will tell the story - stay tuned.
SPY and ES maintain above Q4R1s (red crosses) which increases the chance of seeing the next resistance levels of 2HR1s (red dots) at 215.20 and 2126 respectively.
SPY and ES continue to hold the Q4R1s (red crosses) as support, which increases the chance of seeing the next resistance levels of 2HR1s (red dots) at 215.20 and 2126 respectively.
Could have been a medium-term level rejection today, but bulls fought back and recovered the Q4R1 (red crosses) on SPY. On ES it looks even better with the level continuing to look like support. Charts below.
SPY still pausing near Q4R1 (red crosses) but level is trying to turn into support. This is more clearly the case on ES. If Q4R1 can hold as support, then year end target is 2HR1 (red dots) at 215.20 and 2126 respectively.
11/19: "Low volume pause under SPY Q4R1 (red crosses). This looks a lot less threatening than the higher volume, clear rejections of 11/9 and 11/11. Bulls still have the ball. Also on the ES, the level may be starting to act as support. We'll see what happens."
Result for 11/20 is the level acting as support clearly on ES, and somewhat on SPY as well. Very bullish to hold Q4R1s (red crosses) as support, because next target up is 2HR1 (red dots) at 213.80.
Low volume pause under SPY Q4R1 (red crosses). This looks a lot less threatening than the higher volume, clear rejections of 11/9 and 11/11. Bulls still have the ball. Also on the ES, the level may be starting to act as support. We'll see what happens.
11/17/2015: "Pivotal heads up! A lot of major indexes are on big levels. While there wasn't a clear move today, there is likely to be a definitive direction in days ahead. [...] Bull / bear scenario for remainder of 2015 likely to be decided by watching these 6 levels or areas."
Those levels were:
SPY 2HP 205.83 (orange dots); launched! Back to Q4R1 but holding a long term pivot is more significant according to The Pivotal Perspective than running into a medium term resistance level.
QQQ YR1 111.90 (red crosses), along with 2HR1 112.36 (red dots); cleared!
DIA 2HP (orange dots) 176.42; cleared!
IWM YP (large orange crosses) 114.85 and Q4P (smaller orange crosses) 114.31 combo; held and rallied!
These 4 main USA index ETFs are below in order listed above.
Additionally:
TLT held YP (large orange crosses) 118.44; still above but not capping stocks, probably more chance of break with today's news
VIX confirmed the rally by falling below the 2HP at 17.82.
Pivotal heads up! A lot of major indexes are on big levels. While there wasn't a clear move today, there is likely to be a definitive direction in days ahead.
SPY 2HP 205.83 (orange dots); so far pause more than rejection, but important to watch.
QQQ YR1 111.90 (red crosses), along with 2HR1 112.36 (red dots); like SPY, more pause than rejection.
DIA 2HP (orange dots) 176.42; looked a bit more like rejection, also slightly higher relative volume.
IWM YP (large orange crosses) 114.85 and Q4P (smaller orange crosses) 114.31 combo, smack in between.
Additionally:
TLT held YP (large orange crosses) 118.44 and this looks good with exception of lower volume.
VIX is stuck between the YP and HP at 20.17 and 17.82 respectively. Above YP would be bearish for stocks and likely coincide with index ETF sell-off. Below HP would help confirm stock rally.
Bull / bear scenario for remainder of 2015 likely to be decided by watching these 6 levels or areas. All charts below except VIX in this order: SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, TLT (also see the gray background on the chart)
11/13/2015 post: "For now the level to watch is the NovP at 202.16 on SPY." Low of day 202.18!
If there was a place to take off some hedges (mentioned from 11/9) and add back on the long side, it was when SPY held the NovP (small orange dots), which happened along with QQQ & IWM holding NovPs too.
Now to watch SPY 2HP 205.83 (orange dots).
Damage done last week; first on 11/9 and again 11/11 Q4R1 (red crosses) clearly acted as resistance; on 11/12 2HP (orange dots) broke; and by Friday SPY was testing MP (small orange dots).
The first chart below shows long term levels only, ie yearly and half year pivots. The next chart shows medium term, ie quarterly and monthly. The third combines both. The long term levels are more important than the medium term, so the break below 2HP is significant; this is really the third break this half so yet another recovery would be quite rare. For now the level to watch is the NovP at 202.16 on SPY.
11/9: "SPY and ES broke their Q4R1s (red crosses) today, which is short term bearish until recovery. [...] If it were me managing a pivotal portfolio, I'd hold USA winners from 9/30-10/6 buys and put on some much weaker index hedges via EEM, FXI, PIN, RSX and EWZ."
11/11: "SPY and ES look more bearish today despite low volume since we see clear resistance at the Q4R1s (red crosses). This increases the chance of test of support at the 2HPs (orange dots)."
Check on both comments! Today SPY reached the 2HP (orange dots) and broke, which is even more bearish. The Pivotal Perspective was putting on hedges on 11/9 to cushion the blow; the average percent drop from 11/9 open of the 5 vehicles mentioned above slightly exceeds the drop in SPY and QQQ for the same time period.
Whether adding hedges or reducing longs, cutting exposure on 11/9 was the right idea - and the crystal clear move using pivots.
A lot of big levels are now in play: SPY 2HP (orange dots) at 205.83 broke today, ES 2HP 2039 testing, SPX 2HP 2059 also broke; watch the futures but 2 out of 3 broken is bearish; QQQ YR1 (large red crosses) / 2HR1 (red dots) combo 111.90 and 1HR1 112.36 respectively could save the market yet again; DIA also broke 2HP (orange dots) today, IWM testing YP (large orange crosses) 114.85 again. NYA was the early tell on this drop really spending only 2 days slightly above its YP (large orange crosses) and then seeing the level rejected. I cannot post all charts mentioned so limiting to SPY, ES and NYA today.
Lastly, VIX is confirming the SPY / SPX break of 2HP by rising above its 2HP at 17.82 (chart not shown). This means the Pivotal Portfolio would be reducing USA index longs in addition to maintaining the hedges already placed on 11/9. Watch the VIX YP at 20.17 from here.
SPY and ES look more bearish today despite low volume since we see clear resistance at the Q4R1s (red crosses). This increases the chance of test of support at the 2HPs (orange dots). NDX / QQQ / NQ has saved the market (from the 8/24L, 9/29L, 10/14L) so probably worth watching its major support levels YR1 111.90 and 2HR1 112.36 respectively. SPY, ES and QQQ below.
SPY and ES spent another day below Q4R1s (red crosses) so we'll see how these levels act on the next test. DIA moving more clearly from Q4R1 that was resistance 4 days down to near 2HP (orange dots) test. All charts below.
SPY and ES broke their Q4R1s (red crosses) today, which is short term bearish until recovery. This reduces the chances of seeing the 2HR1 (red dot) targets. That said, still above all major pivots and this may just be a mild pullback to 2HP (orange dot) support.
If it were me managing a pivotal portfolio, I'd hold USA winners from 9/30-10/6 buys and put on some much weaker index hedges via EEM, FXI, PIN, RSX and EWZ.
11/5: "SPY and ES remain above Q4R1s (red crosses).... Remain bullish above with chance of reaching 2HR1s (red dots) and possibly NovR1s (thin red dots)." So levels on SPY and ES tested and held near exact on Friday and SPX almost tested. Main point: as long as they remain above Q4R1s there is a chance at seeing the next target up which are the 2HR1s (red dots) on each chart. SPY, ES and SPX below.
SPY and ES remain above Q4R1s (red crosses that just cleared on 11/2); SPY tested and held the level near exact today. Remain bullish above with chance of reaching 2HR1s (red dots) and possibly NovR1s (thin red dots).
SPY & ES continue above Q4R1s (red crosses that just cleared on 11/2), and as long as these levels hold the target zone is 2HR1s (red dots) and possibly NovR1s (thin red dots). For near term bull / bear watch, other levels to consider are DIA Q4R1 (rejected today) and NYA YP (cleared only 2 days, today back on level yet holding). All charts below.
SPY & ES continue to trade above the nearest support at Q4R1s (red crosses that just cleared on 11/2), and as long as this holds the target zone is 2HR1s (red dots) and possibly NovR1s (thin red dots).