Bulls win. On 9/30 I pointed out that the SPX recovered 2HS2 level and called it "potentially a big deal, especially considering all the other long term levels in play" and then wrote a larger blog post about it. At the time I said SPX needed to confirm by clearing the OctP and Q4P which were above. Well, the bulls did exactly that with a rally above OctP at 1937 on Friday and Q4P at 1973 on Monday. Along the way SPX also reclaimed the even more important YP (yearly pivot) at 1963, so we can start thinking about the chance of YR1 2188 again. These days of status change on big levels tend to be definitive.
After a huge rally it would be normal to have a pullback, so watch these levels to hold as support. Q4P 1973 and YP 1963 are the larger levels; then last chance at OctP 1937.
10/2/2015
Wow! After holding 2HS2 1905 for 2 days, SPX again tested and held, then launched. Despite the bad jobs # it managed to close above the OctP at 1937. This was a huge score for the bulls and a a significant development per The Pivotal Perspective - not just due to the strength of the rally, but because a long term support level has just held, and the medium term trend uptraded from down to mixed.
The next levels in play are YP 1963 and Q4P 1973. This marks a very clear resistance zone; how that responds will be very key for the bull market. If SPX remains below the YP, then there is still the chance to trade YS1 1833; above the YP, though, and we can start thinking YR1 again at 2188.
ps: you might want to check all the other benchmark index levels that held this week in the "Ringing the bell" post in the blog.
10/1/2015
SPX tested and held the 2HS2 1905 today, which keeps hope alive for the bulls. As mentioned in yesterday's post, even if more bounce it will be heading into OctP 1937 and then Q4P 1973. In fact, the OctP on the ES futures contract tested overnight on 10/1 as was rejected. But so far the bulls are not giving up and 1905 has held for two straight days. The index will to clear the OctP for any real medium term change of trend which will help lock in the recent test as a more important low.
9/30/2015
SPX recovered the 2HS2 1905 level today, which is potentially a big deal, especially considering all the other long term levels in play (see today's blog post). However, the bounce will be heading into OctP at 1937; and then even if that clears, Q4P is 1973.
This is a case of a long term support level holding - which does give a chance of bottom - but the medium term trend is still negative. Watch that level carefully, because if the medium term trend cannot turn up, then the long term trend remains down. That said, a positive development in the medium term trend would help confirm this move as an important low in the market.
9/29/2015
SPX continued its long term downtrend today, staying under the 2HS2 and Q3S3 levels that broke on 9/28. YS1 1833 within reach. Soon we will have new Q4 and Oct pivots; it is likely that SPX opens Q4 and October below these levels.
09/28/2015
SPX worsened its long term downtrend today, breaking 2HS2 1905. This level had nearly tested three times: tagged exactly on 9/1 with low of 1903, nearly tested on 9/4 with low of 1911, and again within a few points on 9/24 at 1908. Today it caved without any attempt at bounce. Next stop YS1 1833.