SPY Daily is daily commentary posted after close with focus on SPY, SPX cash index, ES futures (all variants of same index). Sometimes I include other charts of interest.
The Blog will have a series of posts usually over the weekend. My current schedule includes posts on: USA main indexes, safe havens, a brief comment on valuation & fundamentals, and a Total market view post that ties everything together. There there are occasional posts on sentiment or other charts that are attracting my interest.
The Total market view begins with a review of the prior week summary and bottom line and then follows with the summary and bottom line for the current week. For the short version of my take on markets, this is all you need to read. If you want more on my thought process, continue with the other sections and follow the links to other pages.
For subjects and tags search this site in the box below. For example, if you want my weekly market summary Total market view enter that term in the box, then click on the tag at the bottom of a post to make sure you are reading the most current version.
The easiest introduction is this video.
The pivot is the center dividing line; above is bullish and below is bearish. Above the pivot lies resistance level 1 and then above that is level 2. Below the pivot is support 1 and then further below is support 2. On smaller timeframes R3/S3's can be in play and even R4/S4s, but on the larger timeframes usually R1-2 and S1-2 will suffice.
Abbreviations (also see full version below)
Y = yearly, H = half year, Q = quarterly, M = month, W = weekly. Then a number refers to the period. Year is always current unless otherwise specified. 1H = Jan to June, 2H = July to Dec. Quarters follow in similar logic Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. Usually I refer to monthly pivots as MP but sometimes will specify OctP for example especially at the start of the month.
So, the following are commonly used abbreviations:
YS2 YS1 YP YR1 YR2
2HS2 2HS1 2HP 2HR1 2HR2
Q4S2 Q4S1 Q4P Q4R1 Q4R2
MS2 MS1 MP MR1 MR2
From my view "long term" means yearly and half-year levels. "Medium term" means quarterly and monthly levels. Then "short term" are weekly and daily, and while they are useful for short term trading I don't refer to them much here.
On weekly or daily charts:
yearly = largest crosses
half-yearly = larger dots
quarterly = smaller crosses
monthly = smaller dots
On hourly charts
weekly = crosses
daily = dots
For additional notes on the charts and how they appear, please see this post.
For key concepts and strategies, read this post, and you can also search for tags "basics" and "strategy" in the search box for all related posts.
Complete abbreviation list
I tend to "think out loud" on the posts and cannot really get around referring to pivots in posting. Please refer to the FAQ page and video for more explanation. Perhaps this list will also be helpful.
Pivot abbreviations & charts
YP = yearly pivot, large orange crosses in charts
YR1 = yearly resistance 1, large red crosses
YR2 = yearly resistance 2, large red crosses
YR3 = yearly resistance 3, large red crosses
YS1 = yearly support 1, large green crosses
YS2 = yearly support 2, large green crosses
YS3 = yearly support 3, large green crosses
1HP, 2HP = 1st half (Jan-Jun) pivot, 2nd half (Jul-Dec) pivot, large orange dots
1HR1, 2HR1 = 1st half resistance 1, 2nd half resistance 1, large red dots
1HR2 , 2HR2 = 1st half resistance 2, 2nd half resistance 2, large red dots
1HR3, 2HR3 = 1st half resistance 3, 2nd half resistance 3, large red dots
1HS1, 2HS1 = 1st half support 1, 2nd half support 1, large green dots
1HS2, 2HS2 = 1st half support 2, 2nd half support 2, large green dots
1HS3, 2HS3 = 1st half support 3, 2nd half support 3, large green dots
Q1P, Q2P, Q3P, Q4P = 1st quarter (Q) pivot, 2nd Q pivot, 3rd Q pivot, 4th Q pivot, medium orange crosses
Q1R1, Q2R1, Q3R1, Q4R1 = quarterly resistance 1 in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters respectively, medium red crosses
Q1R2, Q2R2, Q3R2, Q4R2 = quarterly resistance 2, medium red crosses
Q1R3, Q2R3, Q3R3, Q4R3 = quarterly resistance 3, medium red crosses
Q1S1, Q2S1, Q3S1, Q4S1 = quarterly support 1 in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th quarters, medium green crosses
Q1S2, Q2S2, Q3S2, Q4S2, quartelry support 2, medium green crosses
Q1S3, Q2S3, Q3S3, Q4S3, quarterly support 3, medium green crosses
JanP, FebP, MarP, etc = monthly pivot, small orange dots
JanR1, FebR1, MarR1 = monthly resistance 1, small red dots
JanR2, FebR2, MarR2 = monthly resistance 2, small red dots
JanR3, FebR3, MarR3 = monthly resistance 3, small red dots
JanS1, FebS1, MarS1 = monthly support 1, small green dots
JanS2, FebS2, MarS2 = monthly support 2, small green dots
JanS3, FebS3, MarS3 = monthly support 3, small green dots
Long term = yearly and half year pivots, often shown on weekly chart, included on daily charts
Medium term = quarterly and monthly pivots, shown on daily charts
Short term = weekly and daily pivots, shown on 1-2 hour charts
Pivot only charts = refer to charts where I show pivots, but no support or resistance for clarify of trends. You will see crosses and dots showing yearly, half-year, quarterly and monthly pivots, and moving averages as below. I may also start referring to these as P4 charts meaning yearly pivot, half-year pivot, quarterly pivot and monthly pivot.
Common charts and other abbreviations
USA main indexes = SPX S&P500, NDX Nasdaq 100, INDU Dow Industrials, RUT Russell small caps, NYA New York Composite, VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund
SPX set, Tech set, INDU set, RUT set, all refer to the index and other variations which are the ETFs and futures related to the index. Futures are both '1' continuous contract or H, M, U or Z. Thus the "SPX set" means SPX index, SPY ETF, ES1 continuous contract futures, and ESZ or whatever current month futures. Pivots will be similar but not the same and often the group together will give the best signals instead of picking just one. For simplicity and ease of access I often refer to the ETFs in the SPY daily comment, but in blog posts will often be more comprehensive.
ETFs & indexes - if you don't know what these are, please search google or a common finance or market related site like CNBC or yahoo finance
DXY USA dollar index
Safe havens - my collective term for TLT bonds, GLD gold, GDX gold miners, and VIX & variations
VIX - used extensively, CBOE options pricing index often works very well in confirming other setups
XIV - inverse ETF relating to VIX, but not the same
SMH/SOXX - two common semi-conductors ETFs
XBI/IBB - two common biotech ETFs
XLF/IYF - two common financial ETFs
EEM - emerging markets
FXI - China via Hong Kong
RSX - Russia
INDA - India
EWZ - Brazil
ACWI - Broad international index
Other chart abbreviations
MA = simple moving average
10MA in aqua
20MA in orange
50MA in purple
100MA in thin black
200MA in thick black
400MA in thick brown
D, W, M, Q = daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly
BB = Bollinger band, standard setting
RSI = relative strength index, standard 14 settig
MACD, common technical indicator, tweaked setting 7, 12, 5
Divergence = higher in price, lower in indicator (usually RSI, can also be Bollinger bands) OR lower in price, higher in indicator
Valuation = primarily SPX forward P/E ratio
Fundamentals = Citigroup Economic Surprise Index
Sentiment = standard CBOE put-call ratio, ISEE meter, AAII individual sentiment, NAAIM managers exposure
Timing = proprietary timing model